Round 38 - La Liga
Real Madrid VS Athletic Club
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
23 May, 2026
Overview:
La Liga Round 38 meeting at the Santiago Bernabéu with Real Madrid entering as the stronger side on paper, but Athletic Club’s structure and recent competitiveness suggest a tighter contest than a simple home favorite script. The model blends historical head-to-head trends, current form indicators, and venue effects to project a controlled Madrid performance with moderate scoring and some resistance from Athletic.
Recent H2H results: Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Club
Prediction:
Based on current form and stats, we expect a close contest with a final score of 2-1 in favor of Real Madrid.
Madrid should control possession and territorial pressure, while Athletic are likely to defend in medium blocks and look to break quickly into open space. If Real Madrid score first, the game may open and favor a multi-goal home result; if Athletic survive early phases, the match could remain close into the second half.
Home dominance in possession and chance volume supports a Real Madrid result, but Athletic’s structure lowers the probability of a runaway scoreline. The most likely pattern is a home win by one or two goals with under- or near-over 2.5 total goals.
Last Update: 21-05-2026
Stats:
| Real Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|
| Expected Possession | |
| 56.8 | 43.2 |
| Average Goals Per Match | |
| 1.95 | 1.05 |
| Win Probability | |
| 58.4 | 18.5 |
| Position | Team | Won | Drawn | Lost | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 31 | 1 | 6 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 27 | 5 | 6 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 |
| 4 | Atleti | 21 | 6 | 11 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 15 | 15 | 8 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 14 | 12 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 13 | 14 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 12 | 10 | 16 | 46 |
| 12 | Athletic | 13 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 13 | Sevilla FC | 12 | 7 | 19 | 43 |
| 14 | Alavés | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43 |
| 16 | Levante | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 18 | Mallorca | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 9 | 14 | 15 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 6 | 11 | 21 | 29 |
| Name | Club | Country | Matches | Goals | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Mbappé | RMA | FRA | 31 | 25 | 4 |
| V. Muriqi | MAL | KOS | 37 | 23 | 1 |
| A. Budimir | OSA | CRO | 37 | 17 | N/A |
| F. Torres | FCB | SPA | 35 | 16 | 3 |
